MISO: Clean Power Plan costs largely hinge on natural gas prices
Natural gas is the biggest variable in how much it will cost MISO to meet new greenhouse gas emissions limits, based on the grid operator’s new modeling. The analysis considered coal retirements from 7 GW to 28 GW, and CO2 costs from $10 to $100/short ton.
Renewable standards were considered at the existing 14% level of penetration in MISO, as well as 20% and 30%.
The least and most expensive combinations that hit right around prescribed targets both called for no additional coal retirements. The higher-cost option leaned more heavily on energy efficiency in a climate of expensive natural gas.
Interim reductions, on the way to a 32% cut in carbon emissions, are targeted for 2022 with a final deadline of 2030.
States can choose a mass- or rate-based approach, the latter of which places carbon limits per MWh of energy production. A growing number of studies have found regional compliance options are the most likely to save consumers money. MISO, along with the Southwest Power Pool and PJM Interconnection, have all released analysis showing states will save billions of dollars if they work together.