Electrical Generation Gas Turbines Will See Sales Increase, but Overcapacity Looms
LAS VEGAS, Nev., POWER-GEN International, Dec. 05, 2017 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Forecast International’s analysis “The Market for Gas Turbine Electric Power Generation” projects that sales of power generation gas turbines from 2017-2026 will grow 6.6 percent over sales during the period 2016-2025. The value of sales of gas turbines in this class will total $112.11 billion over this timeframe.
“The utility and industrial power generation market will continue to provide a strong stimulus for the production of gas turbine machines,” said Forecast International’s Senior Industrial and Marine Gas Turbine Editor Stuart Slade. “Much of that production will go into combined-cycle and/or cogeneration facilities and systems.”
Clouds on the horizon are casting shadows on this market, however. The Forecast International study projects a market for 1,187 power generation gas turbines whose output exceeds 100 MW. This implies average sales of 118 gas turbines in this size bracket per year during the timeframe of the analysis. Yet the total world manufacturing capacity for gas turbines in this category is estimated at around 400 machines per year. Clearly, there is major overcapacity in the production base for these gas turbines.
The cause of the overcapacity in this sector is a basic change in the generating environment. Slade points out that “10 or 15 years ago, the response to an increase in electricity demand was to build more generating capacity. This isn’t the case anymore. The link between electricity demand and generating capacity has been broken…